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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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